Technical analysis

Bitcoin to Once Again Test the $15k Level? Here’s When

According to Tone Vays, Bitcoin has rallied from its recent bear market low of $15,700 and is currently trading within a narrow horizontal band. The seasoned trader predicts that Bitcoin’s surge will likely take it to a significant resistance level, which could lead to the next sell-off event, even though he expects a bullish continuation in the short run.

He was explaining a chart when he indicated that because the horizontal channel is forming after a 10% upswing, there is a greater than 50% chance that the next breakout would be upward, at least by the channel’s small size and possibly by the last bounce’s larger 10%-plus magnitude. There’s a good likelihood of one more collapse to the sub-$15,000 level, according to Vays’ earlier prediction.

Source: Tone Vays/YouTube

“That gets us to the underside of the prior channel, which is major and monster resistance, especially if it comes in contact with the 128-day moving average. So I am looking for this bounce to probably continue to year end, and then everyone is going to be super bullish in the beginning of the year, and then there is a high probability of one more capitulation down.”

Bitcoin Has Been in Capitulation Since June

According to on-chain data given by Glassnode, since June, Bitcoin and the market as a whole have been in capitulation, with the exception of a few rallies seen during this ongoing bear market. According to the chart below, BTC has firmly entered the capitulation sentiment as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) on-chain data shows a decline into the red area, which was last witnessed in 2012, 2015, and 2019.

Only 54% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was most recently moved on-chain for profit, according to the Bitcoin: Percent Supply in Profit (7-day Moving Average) indicator. This statistic shows the BTC circulating supply dropping below 50% via the FTX crash, a level that has only occurred during bear market lows.

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